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Daily pipeline live · regime-switching engine in production · foundation-model fine-tune in progress

Nigerian economic intelligence
that banks can actually cite.

Cite every figure. Refuse when the data isn't there. Publicly correct our own errors when we get them wrong — the same discipline BLS, BEA, and SEC use for their own revisions. 40+ live data sources · regime-switching engine · foundation LLM fine-tune in progress. Built from Nigeria, deployable for any emerging market.

What Asotele solves

Nigerian economic decisions get made every day — treasury desks setting FX exposure, ministers announcing policy, businesses pricing loans, journalists writing about the economy. The data those decisions need exists, but it’s scattered across CBN circulars, NBS PDFs, news reports, tax gazettes, and Excel files nobody can find. Getting a straight answer with a citation takes hours. Most AI chatbots just make numbers up.

Asotele fuses those sources into one system and puts guardrails around the answer — every figure cited to its original source, refusal when the data isn’t there, and a visible correction the same day if we get it wrong.

Who this is for

Nigerian banks & treasury desks

Price FX risk, credit exposure, and sector rotation with data that’s actually current — not last quarter’s report.

Regulators & public-sector agencies

Check the live state of the economy across sectors without waiting for the next release cycle.

Businesses, CFOs, and analysts

Make capital, hiring, and pricing decisions grounded in verified Nigerian data — not vibes or news headlines.

Researchers & journalists

A citable substrate for public analysis. Every figure traces back to a specific document.

What we deliberately don’t do

  • Predict tomorrow’s FX rate. No one can — asking is a category error. We report what happened; scenario tools show conditional projections.
  • Give investment advice. That’s the fiduciary duty of the desk making the trade. We give the data.
  • Fill data gaps with plausible-sounding guesses. If we don’t have it, we say we don’t have it — that’s the whole point.

What’s public, what’s paid

Ambiguity here would be unfair to both audiences. Here’s the split, deliberately explicit:

Free · anyone with an internet connection
  • This site — architecture, methodology, corrections log
  • Daily headline indicators (MPR, inflation, FX, Brent, reserves) refreshed on the homepage
  • The 40-second demo video, with transcript
  • The full corrections-process document
  • Open-source model weights + training manifests (roadmap; Apache 2.0)
Paid B2B tier · banks, asset managers, institutions
  • The full daily briefing — economic dashboard, news intelligence, monetary-policy tone, Asotele Signals, council verdict. Published to the advisor portal + Telegram channel; deliberately NOT on this site.
  • Scenario & counterfactual projections (if Brent drops $10…)
  • Bank-internal deployment: VPC install, REST API with SLA, custom source ingest
  • Advisor-portal access

The paid tier (banks, asset managers) subsidises the free tier. If citable Nigerian economic data required a Bloomberg-scale annual subscription, most Nigerian citizens, SMEs, journalists, and researchers would be locked out. That’s the public-good frame.

See it work

A 40-second look at Asotele answering questions about Nigerian economic data — citing the actual source each time, and refusing cleanly when the data isn't there.

Video transcript & description

The video has no narration — every screen carries on-screen text, set against AceStep instrumental music. Sequence of frames:

  1. Title card: "Nigerian economic intelligence, grounded in citations."
  2. Live chat — MPR question: User asks "What is the current MPR?" Asotele answers "26.5% — cited to today's CBN briefing."
  3. NGX coverage: "Every NGX-listed company. Indexed and citable in seconds."
  4. Live chat — Dangote IPO question: User asks "Is there a pending Dangote IPO?" Asotele returns the actual NGX corporate-actions filing.
  5. Trust frame: "Asotele refuses to fabricate information. Cites every source."
  6. Live chat — FX prediction refusal: User asks "What will the FX rate be tomorrow?" Asotele refuses cleanly. Caption: "Asotele reports measured history, not predictions."
  7. Closing: "Asotele — Built in Nigeria. Open by design." Ends on the URL asotele.apexgridapps.com.

Duration: ~40 seconds. No spoken audio.

When we get it wrong, we say so.

Errors happen in macroeconomic data. Professional statistics agencies — BLS, BEA, IMF, SEC — issue corrections regularly. Credibility comes from a transparent correction process, not from being error-free. On 2026-07-05 we caught systematic scraper-noise errors in 21 published briefings and corrected all of them visibly on the affected artefacts, invited advisor review, and rewired the underlying data pipeline. Zero silent edits.

⚠️ CORRECTION — issued 2026-07-05

This briefing (published 2026-07-04) contained macro-dashboard values that reflected stale data-feed inputs. The following corrections apply. Original body preserved below.

Indicator Originally shown Corrected Source of correction
MPR 22.0% 27.50% CBN MPC decision 2025-02-26
Inflation (CPI YoY) 17.8% 34.80% IMF/IFS PCPI_IX YoY (Dec 2024)
USD/NGN Official ₦1,369 ₦1,369.69 CBN /api/GetAllExchangeRates · 2026-07-03

Actual correction block from the 2026-07-05 event, rendered on every affected briefing. Independent advisor review invited via the advisor portal.

Visible on-artefact notice

Every affected briefing carries a ⚠️ CORRECTION block at the top listing what changed. Original body preserved verbatim. Nothing rewritten.

Per-briefing audit log

Every correction produces a dated log entry at corrections/YYYY-MM-DD_briefing_<original>.md. Anyone can point at the log directory as evidence.

Root-cause fix in the pipeline

Not a manual patch. The scraper that produced the wrong figure is retired and replaced with an authoritative source (CBN direct API, in the 2026-07-05 event).

Independent review invited

Every correction event is paired with an advisor-portal question. Contested advisor input is treated as signal.

Read the full corrections process →

Current indicators

Refreshed by the daily pipeline. Source files versioned in the project repo.

Brent crude
FRED / EIA · 2026-07-09
NGN/USD (official)
CBN · 2026-07-09
NGN/USD (parallel)
USDT parallel-market proxy · 2026-07-09
NGX All-Share Index
NGX Group · 2026-07-09
CBN MPR
CBN · 2026-07-09
Oil regime (Markov 3-state)
BOOM
FX volatility (GARCH)
STRESS

Two audiences. One engine.

The same Asotele forecast engine serves two distinct surfaces. Banks pay for the infrastructure; small businesses get the outputs.

Paid tier · Live

For financial institutions

Banks, asset managers, treasury desks, credit risk teams. Forecast outputs surfaced via REST API, embedded inside Finovamax, or deployed inside your VPC.

  • Daily regime classification on currency pairs
  • 1/7/30-day FX, oil, equities forecasts with confidence intervals
  • Multi-variable transmission analysis (VAR + Granger)
  • Native integration with Finovamax banking software
  • Open-source methodology — auditable for regulators

See use cases → Talk to us

Free tier · In development

For businesses & founders

The graduate building a drone factory. The market trader hedging dollar exposure. The startup founder planning capex. Free access to the same forecast engine via a multilingual web chat, in English, Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, and Nigerian Pidgin.

  • Plain-language daily economic briefings
  • Ask-anything Q&A grounded in the forecast engine
  • FX, inflation, fuel, and sector outlooks for planning decisions
  • Multilingual access — work in the language you actually think in
  • Funded by Apex Grid's institutional revenue + grant partners

Launching Q4 2026 Get notified when it's live

Recent project updates

  • The Pidgin corpus is built. The number didn't move. Here's what we learned.
    Following the honest 0.460 macro-F1 reported in the 2026-06-08 Pidgin post, we built the BBC News Pidgin domain corpus the LINGUA Africa proposal scopes — 776 articles, 41,208 cleaned paragraphs, four years of coverage. We then ran the workstream-2 hypothesis end-to-end: AfriBERTa masked-LM continued pretraining on that corpus, then re-fine-tune the sentiment classifier, then test on AfriSenti. Result: +0.0009 macro-F1. Functionally zero. Adding class-weighted loss on top: +0.0052 best-case. The bottleneck isn't Pidgin representation — it's the structural 1.4% neutral class in AfriSenti pcm, and no amount of Pidgin domain text will move that wall. This is the pivot post: the right workstream-2 measurement target is a hand-labelled BBC Pidgin sentiment test set, not the AfriSenti held-out test. We've built the sample; the labels are next.
  • Pidgin closes the loop — and the honest F1 gap that comes with it
    The fourth and final AsoteleLingua language pilot — Nigerian Pidgin (pcm) — fine-tuned overnight on AfriSenti SemEval-2023 and lands at test macro-F1 0.460. That's substantially below the Hausa 0.779, Igbo 0.782, and Yoruba 0.715 results from earlier in the week. The 4-of-4 milestone is real; so is the gap. This post lays out why Pidgin lags, what it means for the workstream-2 evidence in the LINGUA Africa proposal, and the grounded-knowledge layer that landed alongside it.
  • Yoruba lands, Igbo runs tonight — and the Igbo finding the proposal didn't expect
    AsoteleLingua now covers two of its four target Nigerian languages. The Yoruba pilot — fine-tuned AfriBERTa-Large on AfriSenti SemEval-2023 Yoruba plus a precision-tuned BBC Yorùbá financial scraper — lands at a +0.216 confidence lift over the multilingual baseline, replicating the +0.253 Hausa pattern from earlier this week. Igbo training kicked off tonight; the surprise was discovering, while scoping Igbo source coverage, that Igbo-language online finance content is structurally near-absent — itself the strongest possible argument for the LINGUA Africa workstream.

All updates →